Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Foligno on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Foligno wins 56.4% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Foligno 52.0% vs Aho 53.8% (-1.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 53.2%
Defensive zone
Aho 55.5%
Neutral zone
Foligno 52.0%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 53.6%
46.4%
53.6%
Foligno
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Foligno
Aho
Last 5: Foligno 4-1 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Foligno
1
0
Foligno
Aho
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Foligno
2
1
Foligno
Aho
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Foligno
1
0
Foligno
Aho
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Foligno
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
53.4% (249)
51.2% (785)
+2.2%
Power Play
53.2% (154)
63.8% (213)
-10.6%
Penalty Kill
40.6% (32)
57.9% (57)
-17.3%
On penalty kill, Aho has a +17.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Foligno is 56.4% vs left-shot opponents (243).
Foligno shoots left. Aho is 53.9% vs left-shot opponents (649).
Home / Away
Foligno
Aho
Home
57.3% (225)
54.9% (548)
Away
47.1% (210)
53.3% (507)
By Period
Foligno
Aho
P1
53.0%
52.8%
P2
51.8%
58.9%
P3
52.6%
50.6%
Final 5 min
53.3%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Foligno
54.0%▲
48.0%
52.4%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
54.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14, 2024 | 1 | 16:13 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 1 | 12:46 | Neutral | Nick Foligno |
| Feb 19, 2024 | 1 | 09:39 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Feb 19, 2024 | 1 | 06:20 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 19, 2024 | 1 | 00:50 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |