Scouting Report
Justin Dowling holds a +3.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Wright on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowling 48.7% vs Wright 45.1% (+3.8%)
H2H factor
Wright leads 5-5 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Wright 56.3%
Defensive zone
Wright 55.1%
Neutral zone
Wright 53.4%
Result
Shane Wright favored at 55.3%
44.7%
55.3%
Dowling
Wright
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
5
(10 meetings)
5
5
Dowling
Wright
Last 10: Dowling 5-5 Wright
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Wright
1
4
Dowling
Wright
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowling
2
1
Dowling
Wright
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowling
2
0
Dowling
Wright
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowling
Wright
Edge
Even Strength
48.7% (318)
43.9% (758)
+4.8%
Power Play
20.0% (5)
50.7% (67)
-30.7%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (4)
40.0% (5)
+10.0%
On power play, Wright has a +30.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Wright shoots right. Dowling is 47.1% vs right-shot opponents (104).
Dowling shoots left. Wright is 44.9% vs left-shot opponents (604).
Home / Away
Dowling
Wright
Home
49.0% (145)
46.3% (406)
Away
47.8% (182)
42.7% (424)
By Period
Dowling
Wright
P1
48.1%
46.8%
P2
49.1%
42.6%
P3
47.8%
44.4%
Final 5 min
51.5%
43.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowling
54.0%▲
49.5%
48.3%
Wright
44.0%▲
42.5%
44.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2025 | 3 | 07:15 | Offensive | Shane Wright |
| Jan 6, 2025 | 3 | 03:06 | Offensive | Shane Wright |
| Jan 6, 2025 | 2 | 18:57 | Defensive | Justin Dowling |
| Jan 6, 2025 | 1 | 07:56 | Neutral | Justin Dowling |
| Jan 6, 2025 | 1 | 04:46 | Defensive | Shane Wright |
| Jan 6, 2025 | 1 | 01:47 | Offensive | Justin Dowling |
| Dec 6, 2024 | 2 | 12:09 | Defensive | Justin Dowling |
| Dec 6, 2024 | 2 | 06:56 | Offensive | Shane Wright |
| Dec 6, 2024 | 2 | 06:49 | Offensive | Shane Wright |
| Dec 6, 2024 | 1 | 10:16 | Neutral | Justin Dowling |