Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +9.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Horcoff on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 10 meetings). Thornton wins 57.7% vs left-shot opponents — Horcoff shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thornton 57.4% vs Horcoff 49.2% (+9.5%)
H2H factor
Horcoff leads 9-7 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Thornton 52.1%
Defensive zone
Horcoff 64.3%
Neutral zone
Horcoff 52.0%
Result
Shawn Horcoff favored at 54.6%
45.4%
54.6%
Thornton
Horcoff
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
9
(16 meetings)
7
9
Thornton
Horcoff
Last 10: Thornton 5-5 Horcoff
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Thornton
Horcoff
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Thornton
Horcoff
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Horcoff
4
6
Thornton
Horcoff
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thornton
Horcoff
Edge
Even Strength
57.0% (540)
46.9% (318)
+10.1%
Power Play
64.0% (111)
64.9% (94)
-0.9%
Penalty Kill
62.0% (50)
39.8% (88)
+22.2%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +22.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Horcoff shoots left. Thornton is 57.7% vs left-shot opponents (478).
Thornton shoots left. Horcoff is 48.6% vs left-shot opponents (350).
Home / Away
Thornton
Horcoff
Home
56.7% (353)
46.7% (289)
Away
60.3% (348)
52.1% (211)
By Period
Thornton
Horcoff
P1
59.3%
49.4%
P2
60.1%
47.0%
P3
57.1%
50.9%
OT
47.6%
42.9%
Final 5 min
58.0%
48.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
58.5%
Horcoff
62.0%▲
55.5%
49.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2013 | OT | 04:15 | Neutral | Shawn Horcoff |
| Mar 20, 2013 | OT | 02:21 | Defensive | Shawn Horcoff |
| Mar 20, 2013 | OT | 00:15 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 20, 2013 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 20, 2013 | 3 | 17:55 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 20, 2013 | 3 | 15:31 | Offensive | Shawn Horcoff |
| Mar 20, 2013 | 3 | 12:26 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 20, 2013 | 3 | 04:07 | Neutral | Shawn Horcoff |
| Mar 20, 2013 | 2 | 15:12 | Defensive | Shawn Horcoff |
| Mar 20, 2013 | 2 | 12:46 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 20, 2013 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Shawn Horcoff |
| Mar 20, 2013 | 1 | 17:44 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 20, 2013 | 1 | 12:56 | Neutral | Shawn Horcoff |
| Mar 20, 2013 | 1 | 12:55 | Neutral | Shawn Horcoff |
| Mar 20, 2013 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Shawn Horcoff |
| Jan 22, 2013 | 2 | 14:25 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |