Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Horcoff 49.6% vs Hertl 54.1% (-4.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Horcoff 71.6%
Defensive zone
Horcoff 74.6%
Neutral zone
Horcoff 71.2%
Result
Shawn Horcoff favored at 72.7%
72.7%
27.3%
Horcoff
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Horcoff
Hertl
Last 5: Horcoff 1-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Horcoff
Hertl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Horcoff
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Horcoff
1
0
Horcoff
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Horcoff
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
50.6% (3,133)
53.6% (8,077)
-3.0%
Power Play
51.4% (555)
59.7% (1,916)
-8.3%
Penalty Kill
43.0% (567)
46.0% (793)
-3.0%
On power play, Hertl has a +8.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Horcoff is 48.8% vs left-shot opponents (3,000).
Horcoff shoots left. Hertl is 52.6% vs left-shot opponents (6,755).
Home / Away
Horcoff
Hertl
Home
51.1% (2,199)
55.6% (5,217)
Away
48.0% (2,104)
52.7% (5,569)
By Period
Horcoff
Hertl
P1
48.2%
53.6%
P2
49.5%
53.9%
P3
50.9%
55.1%
OT
51.9%
46.8%
Final 5 min
49.0%
54.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Horcoff
62.0%▲
55.5%
49.5%
Hertl
58.0%▬
58.5%
54.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 4, 2015 | 3 | 19:43 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 7, 2015 | 2 | 16:55 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 7, 2015 | 2 | 07:28 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 7, 2015 | 1 | 13:51 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 10, 2015 | 2 | 14:21 | Neutral | Shawn Horcoff |