Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Horcoff 49.6% vs Hertl 54.2% (-4.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Horcoff 69.5%
Defensive zone
Horcoff 74.1%
Neutral zone
Horcoff 70.8%
Result
Shawn Horcoff favored at 71.6%
71.6%
28.4%
Horcoff
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Horcoff
Hertl
Last 5: Horcoff 1-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Horcoff
Hertl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Horcoff
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Horcoff
1
0
Horcoff
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Horcoff
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
50.6% (3,133)
53.8% (8,268)
-3.2%
Power Play
51.4% (555)
59.3% (1,975)
-7.9%
Penalty Kill
43.0% (567)
46.3% (806)
-3.3%
On power play, Hertl has a +7.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Horcoff is 48.8% vs left-shot opponents (3,000).
Horcoff shoots left. Hertl is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (6,916).
Home / Away
Horcoff
Hertl
Home
51.1% (2,199)
55.7% (5,344)
Away
48.0% (2,104)
52.8% (5,705)
By Period
Horcoff
Hertl
P1
48.2%
53.6%
P2
49.5%
54.1%
P3
50.9%
55.3%
OT
51.9%
46.5%
Final 5 min
49.0%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Horcoff
62.0%▲
55.5%
49.5%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 4, 2015 | 3 | 19:43 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 7, 2015 | 2 | 16:55 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 7, 2015 | 2 | 07:28 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 7, 2015 | 1 | 13:51 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 10, 2015 | 2 | 14:21 | Neutral | Shawn Horcoff |