Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (46.4% vs 46.3%). Look for Matthias on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Matthias wins 46.8% vs right-shot opponents — Downie shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthias 46.6% vs Downie 47.5% (+0.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Downie 62.1%
Defensive zone
Matthias 70.8%
Neutral zone
Matthias 53.2%
Result
Shawn Matthias favored at 57.6%
57.6%
42.4%
Matthias
Downie
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Matthias
Downie
Last 5: Matthias 2-3 Downie
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Downie
0
2
Matthias
Downie
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthias
2
1
Matthias
Downie
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthias
Downie
Edge
Even Strength
46.4% (1,716)
48.1% (131)
-1.7%
Power Play
56.3% (103)
43.7% (71)
+12.6%
Penalty Kill
41.7% (175)
0.0% (1)
+41.7%
On penalty kill, Matthias has a +41.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Downie shoots right. Matthias is 46.8% vs right-shot opponents (727).
Matthias shoots left. Downie is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (146).
Home / Away
Matthias
Downie
Home
46.9% (933)
49.5% (93)
Away
45.9% (1,069)
43.6% (110)
By Period
Matthias
Downie
P1
47.8%
41.8%
P2
49.4%
38.6%
P3
41.6%
60.0%
OT
45.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
44.2%
52.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthias
40.0%▼
41.5%
46.4%
Downie
48.0%▲
46.0%
46.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8, 2011 | 2 | 05:08 | Defensive | Shawn Matthias |
| Nov 27, 2010 | 3 | 17:10 | Offensive | Steve Downie |
| Nov 27, 2010 | 1 | 15:22 | Defensive | Steve Downie |
| Oct 16, 2010 | 2 | 09:33 | Offensive | Steve Downie |
| Oct 16, 2010 | 2 | 06:28 | Defensive | Shawn Matthias |