Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (46.4% vs 47.2%). Look for Connolly on neutral-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Matthias wins 46.8% vs right-shot opponents — Connolly shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthias 46.6% vs Connolly 47.3% (-0.8%)
H2H factor
Connolly leads 9-3 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Connolly 52.6%
Defensive zone
Matthias 61.0%
Neutral zone
Matthias 59.2%
Result
Shawn Matthias favored at 58.9%
58.9%
41.1%
Matthias
Connolly
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
9
(12 meetings)
3
9
Matthias
Connolly
Last 10: Matthias 3-7 Connolly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Connolly
0
1
Matthias
Connolly
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Connolly
2
3
Matthias
Connolly
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Connolly
1
5
Matthias
Connolly
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthias
Connolly
Edge
Even Strength
46.4% (1,716)
47.4% (1,307)
-1.0%
Power Play
56.3% (103)
50.2% (251)
+6.1%
Penalty Kill
41.7% (175)
41.9% (186)
-0.2%
On power play, Matthias has a +6.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Connolly shoots right. Matthias is 46.8% vs right-shot opponents (727).
Matthias shoots left. Connolly is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (1,179).
Home / Away
Matthias
Connolly
Home
46.9% (933)
48.5% (870)
Away
45.9% (1,069)
45.9% (885)
By Period
Matthias
Connolly
P1
47.8%
47.4%
P2
49.4%
47.7%
P3
41.6%
47.0%
OT
45.0%
37.8%
Final 5 min
44.2%
42.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthias
40.0%▼
41.5%
46.4%
Connolly
50.0%▬
51.0%
47.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2012 | 3 | 09:49 | Neutral | Tim Connolly |
| Feb 28, 2012 | 1 | 02:10 | Offensive | Tim Connolly |
| Dec 27, 2011 | 3 | 11:44 | Neutral | Tim Connolly |
| Dec 27, 2011 | 3 | 07:30 | Defensive | Tim Connolly |
| Dec 27, 2011 | 3 | 01:13 | Defensive | Shawn Matthias |
| Dec 27, 2011 | 2 | 15:15 | Defensive | Tim Connolly |
| Dec 27, 2011 | 2 | 05:14 | Defensive | Tim Connolly |
| Dec 27, 2011 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tim Connolly |
| Dec 27, 2011 | 1 | 11:44 | Defensive | Shawn Matthias |
| Dec 27, 2011 | 1 | 00:10 | Neutral | Shawn Matthias |
| Dec 27, 2011 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tim Connolly |
| Dec 17, 2010 | 1 | 16:28 | Neutral | Tim Connolly |