Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (56.1% vs 55.5%). Look for Smithson on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Smithson wins 58.0% vs left-shot opponents — Ott shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Smithson 55.3% vs Ott 55.0% (+0.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Ott 77.5%
Defensive zone
Smithson 67.0%
Neutral zone
Ott 51.6%
Result
Jerred Smithson favored at 50.3%
50.3%
49.7%
Smithson
Ott
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Smithson
Ott
Last 6: Smithson 5-1 Ott
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Smithson
1
0
Smithson
Ott
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Smithson
2
0
Smithson
Ott
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Smithson
2
1
Smithson
Ott
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Smithson
Ott
Edge
Even Strength
57.9% (518)
56.9% (705)
+1.0%
Power Play
40.0% (10)
55.8% (154)
-15.8%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (108)
48.3% (145)
+1.7%
On power play, Ott has a +15.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ott shoots left. Smithson is 58.0% vs left-shot opponents (459).
Smithson shoots right. Ott is 56.1% vs right-shot opponents (351).
Home / Away
Smithson
Ott
Home
57.8% (306)
54.9% (526)
Away
54.6% (339)
56.1% (485)
By Period
Smithson
Ott
P1
51.8%
55.4%
P2
54.8%
54.0%
P3
62.0%
56.1%
OT
25.0%
73.7%
Final 5 min
48.6%
55.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Smithson
52.0%▼
58.0%
56.1%
Ott
60.0%▲
53.0%
55.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 19, 2012 | 3 | 08:23 | Neutral | Jerred Smithson |
| Feb 19, 2012 | 2 | 02:06 | Defensive | Jerred Smithson |
| Feb 19, 2012 | 1 | 01:27 | Neutral | Jerred Smithson |
| Jan 5, 2012 | 3 | 00:55 | Defensive | Jerred Smithson |
| Jan 5, 2012 | 2 | 19:26 | Neutral | Steve Ott |
| Dec 23, 2011 | 1 | 06:24 | Offensive | Jerred Smithson |