Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +4.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Adams on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Adams wins 40.0% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Adams 43.2% vs Stamkos 46.8% (-4.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 85.2%
Defensive zone
Stamkos 52.8%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 74.9%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 71.6%
28.4%
71.6%
Adams
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Adams
Stamkos
Last 7: Adams 5-2 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Adams
Stamkos
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Adams
2
0
Adams
Stamkos
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Adams
2
1
Adams
Stamkos
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Adams
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
44.3% (280)
46.0% (767)
-1.7%
Power Play
50.0% (4)
50.0% (126)
+0.0%
Penalty Kill
38.3% (175)
46.2% (26)
-7.9%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +7.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Adams is 40.0% vs right-shot opponents (130).
Adams shoots right. Stamkos is 47.4% vs right-shot opponents (333).
Home / Away
Adams
Stamkos
Home
37.1% (213)
49.7% (441)
Away
45.6% (252)
43.6% (486)
By Period
Adams
Stamkos
P1
46.6%
43.7%
P2
35.8%
50.2%
P3
43.0%
45.1%
OT
100.0%
46.4%
Final 5 min
39.6%
48.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Adams
42.0%▼
45.0%
41.7%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
46.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2011 | 2 | 19:28 | Defensive | Craig Adams |
| Mar 31, 2011 | 2 | 07:56 | Offensive | Craig Adams |
| Mar 31, 2011 | 1 | 10:13 | Neutral | Craig Adams |
| Nov 12, 2010 | 3 | 05:30 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 12, 2010 | 3 | 02:23 | Defensive | Craig Adams |
| Nov 12, 2010 | 2 | 08:28 | Neutral | Craig Adams |
| Nov 12, 2010 | 1 | 14:23 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |