Scouting Report
Jay Beagle holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Beagle wins 56.6% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Beagle 55.5% vs Stamkos 52.8% (+3.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 82.1%
Defensive zone
Beagle 71.7%
Neutral zone
Beagle 52.5%
Result
Jay Beagle favored at 55.4%
55.4%
44.6%
Beagle
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Beagle
Stamkos
Last 8: Beagle 3-5 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
1
Beagle
Stamkos
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Beagle
2
1
Beagle
Stamkos
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stamkos
1
3
Beagle
Stamkos
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Beagle
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
57.7% (572)
52.9% (735)
+4.8%
Power Play
28.6% (7)
53.4% (73)
-24.8%
Penalty Kill
52.5% (179)
53.8% (145)
-1.3%
On power play, Stamkos has a +24.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Beagle is 56.6% vs right-shot opponents (235).
Beagle shoots right. Stamkos is 52.4% vs right-shot opponents (267).
Home / Away
Beagle
Stamkos
Home
58.2% (378)
54.1% (481)
Away
54.2% (380)
52.1% (472)
By Period
Beagle
Stamkos
P1
58.8%
50.2%
P2
51.9%
53.4%
P3
58.1%
55.8%
OT
50.0%
36.4%
Final 5 min
57.1%
51.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Beagle
50.0%▼
53.0%
56.2%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
53.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 18, 2018 | 3 | 05:46 | Neutral | Jay Beagle |
| Dec 18, 2018 | 2 | 11:49 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |
| Dec 18, 2018 | 2 | 08:37 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 18, 2018 | 2 | 02:26 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 18, 2018 | 1 | 13:46 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 18, 2018 | 1 | 11:12 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 11, 2018 | 3 | 01:38 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 11, 2018 | 2 | 03:27 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |