Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +8.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Thornton wins 56.4% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thornton 57.3% vs Stamkos 49.8% (+8.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 77.8%
Defensive zone
Stamkos 65.0%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 65.9%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 69.9%
30.1%
69.9%
Thornton
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Thornton
Stamkos
Last 8: Thornton 3-5 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
3
Thornton
Stamkos
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Thornton
Stamkos
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thornton
1
0
Thornton
Stamkos
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thornton
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
58.7% (722)
48.7% (831)
+10.0%
Power Play
58.5% (147)
53.5% (86)
+5.0%
Penalty Kill
51.2% (86)
69.2% (26)
-18.0%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +18.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Thornton is 56.4% vs right-shot opponents (427).
Thornton shoots left. Stamkos is 51.1% vs left-shot opponents (648).
Home / Away
Thornton
Stamkos
Home
60.1% (496)
52.5% (474)
Away
55.8% (459)
46.9% (469)
By Period
Thornton
Stamkos
P1
60.4%
46.3%
P2
54.7%
52.0%
P3
58.2%
51.2%
OT
61.5%
43.8%
Final 5 min
55.5%
52.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
58.0%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
49.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 15, 2015 | 3 | 08:38 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Feb 15, 2015 | 2 | 10:57 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 15, 2015 | 1 | 07:55 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 13, 2014 | 3 | 14:04 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 13, 2014 | 3 | 02:39 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 13, 2014 | 2 | 02:19 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 13, 2014 | 1 | 19:04 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 13, 2014 | 1 | 02:48 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |