Scouting Report
Justin Danforth holds a +5.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Thompson on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Danforth wins 42.1% vs right-shot opponents — Thompson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Danforth 48.8% vs Thompson 44.0% (+5.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thompson 67.6%
Defensive zone
Thompson 66.3%
Neutral zone
Thompson 67.9%
Result
Tage Thompson favored at 67.0%
33.0%
67.0%
Danforth
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Danforth
Thompson
Last 8: Danforth 3-5 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
0
1
Danforth
Thompson
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
1
3
Danforth
Thompson
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Danforth
2
1
Danforth
Thompson
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Danforth
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
51.2% (281)
44.6% (709)
+6.6%
Power Play
55.6% (9)
41.5% (53)
+14.1%
Penalty Kill
35.8% (67)
35.1% (97)
+0.7%
On power play, Danforth has a +14.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Danforth is 42.1% vs right-shot opponents (95).
Danforth shoots right. Thompson is 52.6% vs right-shot opponents (232).
Home / Away
Danforth
Thompson
Home
52.0% (196)
45.5% (426)
Away
44.1% (161)
41.1% (433)
By Period
Danforth
Thompson
P1
48.2%
48.5%
P2
52.8%
43.8%
P3
42.2%
38.1%
OT
83.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
48.5%
37.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Danforth
54.0%▲
51.5%
48.5%
Thompson
34.0%▼
41.5%
43.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 30, 2023 | OT | 00:49 | Defensive | Justin Danforth |
| Dec 30, 2023 | 3 | 03:54 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 30, 2023 | 2 | 08:27 | Neutral | Justin Danforth |
| Dec 30, 2023 | 2 | 04:34 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 30, 2023 | 2 | 00:51 | Neutral | Justin Danforth |
| Dec 30, 2023 | 1 | 00:53 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 19, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 19, 2023 | 2 | 00:41 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |