Scouting Report
Derek Roy holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Connolly on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 9 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 50.5% vs Connolly 48.9% (+1.9%)
H2H factor
Connolly leads 16-5 in 21 meetings
Offensive zone
Connolly 71.6%
Defensive zone
Connolly 72.7%
Neutral zone
Connolly 71.7%
Result
Tim Connolly favored at 72.1%
27.9%
72.1%
Roy
Connolly
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
16
(21 meetings)
5
16
Roy
Connolly
Last 10: Roy 2-8 Connolly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Connolly
1
5
Roy
Connolly
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Connolly
0
9
Roy
Connolly
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Roy
4
2
Roy
Connolly
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
Connolly
Edge
Even Strength
50.3% (1,010)
47.8% (605)
+2.5%
Power Play
53.3% (169)
51.2% (86)
+2.1%
Penalty Kill
51.1% (133)
55.1% (89)
-4.0%
On penalty kill, Connolly has a +4.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Connolly shoots right. Roy is 51.0% vs right-shot opponents (457).
Roy shoots left. Connolly is 48.7% vs left-shot opponents (548).
Home / Away
Roy
Connolly
Home
52.4% (683)
51.1% (358)
Away
48.6% (646)
46.7% (428)
By Period
Roy
Connolly
P1
48.3%
48.7%
P2
49.5%
48.1%
P3
53.9%
50.4%
OT
48.4%
33.3%
Final 5 min
50.0%
41.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
72.0%▲
47.0%
50.6%
Connolly
50.0%▬
51.0%
48.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2012 | OT | 02:10 | Neutral | Derek Roy |
| Apr 3, 2012 | 3 | 01:43 | Defensive | Tim Connolly |
| Mar 31, 2012 | 3 | 09:19 | Offensive | Tim Connolly |
| Mar 31, 2012 | 1 | 09:32 | Neutral | Tim Connolly |
| Mar 31, 2012 | 1 | 09:14 | Defensive | Tim Connolly |
| Jan 13, 2012 | 3 | 17:45 | Defensive | Tim Connolly |
| Jan 13, 2012 | 1 | 11:58 | Offensive | Derek Roy |
| Dec 22, 2011 | 3 | 15:59 | Defensive | Tim Connolly |
| Dec 22, 2011 | 2 | 13:21 | Offensive | Tim Connolly |
| Dec 22, 2011 | 2 | 10:37 | Defensive | Tim Connolly |
| Dec 22, 2011 | 1 | 11:56 | Neutral | Derek Roy |
| Dec 16, 2011 | 3 | 08:12 | Defensive | Tim Connolly |
| Dec 16, 2011 | 2 | 18:49 | Offensive | Tim Connolly |
| Dec 16, 2011 | 2 | 17:18 | Defensive | Tim Connolly |
| Dec 16, 2011 | 2 | 09:22 | Neutral | Derek Roy |
| Dec 16, 2011 | 1 | 12:59 | Neutral | Tim Connolly |
| Dec 16, 2011 | 1 | 12:55 | Offensive | Tim Connolly |
| Dec 16, 2011 | 1 | 09:23 | Offensive | Tim Connolly |
| Dec 16, 2011 | 1 | 06:01 | Defensive | Tim Connolly |
| Dec 16, 2011 | 1 | 05:57 | Defensive | Tim Connolly |