Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (46.2% vs 45.9%). Look for Nielsen on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Nielsen wins 46.9% vs right-shot opponents — Connolly shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nielsen 46.6% vs Connolly 46.3% (+0.3%)
H2H factor
Nielsen leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Connolly 61.8%
Defensive zone
Nielsen 74.5%
Neutral zone
Nielsen 52.6%
Result
Frans Nielsen favored at 61.9%
61.9%
38.1%
Nielsen
Connolly
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
4
(11 meetings)
7
4
Nielsen
Connolly
Last 10: Nielsen 6-4 Connolly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nielsen
2
0
Nielsen
Connolly
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nielsen
5
1
Nielsen
Connolly
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Connolly
0
3
Nielsen
Connolly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nielsen
Connolly
Edge
Even Strength
46.2% (766)
47.0% (702)
-0.8%
Power Play
43.4% (53)
49.7% (165)
-6.3%
Penalty Kill
48.0% (125)
29.9% (97)
+18.1%
On penalty kill, Nielsen has a +18.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Connolly shoots right. Nielsen is 46.9% vs right-shot opponents (369).
Nielsen shoots left. Connolly is 45.8% vs left-shot opponents (631).
Home / Away
Nielsen
Connolly
Home
46.8% (489)
46.7% (512)
Away
45.6% (476)
45.1% (457)
By Period
Nielsen
Connolly
P1
45.5%
46.5%
P2
47.5%
47.5%
P3
46.5%
44.0%
OT
37.5%
40.9%
Final 5 min
49.8%
42.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nielsen
50.0%▬
50.0%
46.2%
Connolly
50.0%▬
51.0%
45.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 13, 2011 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Tim Connolly |
| Feb 13, 2011 | 3 | 14:32 | Defensive | Frans Nielsen |
| Feb 13, 2011 | 3 | 08:49 | Offensive | Frans Nielsen |
| Feb 13, 2011 | 3 | 05:35 | Defensive | Frans Nielsen |
| Feb 13, 2011 | 2 | 11:09 | Defensive | Frans Nielsen |
| Feb 13, 2011 | 2 | 00:34 | Defensive | Tim Connolly |
| Feb 13, 2011 | 1 | 07:42 | Neutral | Tim Connolly |
| Feb 13, 2011 | 1 | 04:12 | Offensive | Frans Nielsen |
| Feb 13, 2011 | 1 | 03:57 | Neutral | Tim Connolly |
| Jan 21, 2011 | 3 | 15:09 | Defensive | Frans Nielsen |
| Jan 21, 2011 | 1 | 17:30 | Defensive | Frans Nielsen |