Scouting Report
Jussi Jokinen holds a +6.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Connolly on offensive-zone draws (56% H2H, 9 meetings). Jokinen wins 54.5% vs right-shot opponents — Connolly shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Jokinen 52.1% vs Connolly 46.3% (+6.9%)
H2H factor
Connolly leads 7-5 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Connolly 50.4%
Defensive zone
Connolly 56.5%
Neutral zone
Connolly 52.6%
Result
Tim Connolly favored at 51.6%
48.4%
51.6%
Jokinen
Connolly
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
7
(12 meetings)
5
7
Jokinen
Connolly
Last 10: Jokinen 4-6 Connolly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Connolly
4
5
Jokinen
Connolly
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Connolly
0
2
Jokinen
Connolly
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Jokinen
1
0
Jokinen
Connolly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Jokinen
Connolly
Edge
Even Strength
54.1% (196)
47.0% (702)
+7.1%
Power Play
55.7% (79)
49.7% (165)
+6.0%
Penalty Kill
45.2% (42)
29.9% (97)
+15.3%
On penalty kill, Jokinen has a +15.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Connolly shoots right. Jokinen is 54.5% vs right-shot opponents (99).
Jokinen shoots left. Connolly is 45.8% vs left-shot opponents (631).
Home / Away
Jokinen
Connolly
Home
56.8% (169)
46.7% (512)
Away
48.3% (151)
45.1% (457)
By Period
Jokinen
Connolly
P1
52.6%
46.5%
P2
60.6%
47.5%
P3
45.0%
44.0%
OT
60.0%
40.9%
Final 5 min
45.7%
42.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Jokinen
44.0%▼
56.0%
52.8%
Connolly
50.0%▬
51.0%
45.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2011 | 3 | 12:49 | Offensive | Tim Connolly |
| Apr 3, 2011 | 2 | 14:43 | Offensive | Jussi Jokinen |
| Apr 3, 2011 | 2 | 13:56 | Offensive | Jussi Jokinen |
| Apr 3, 2011 | 2 | 13:44 | Offensive | Jussi Jokinen |
| Apr 3, 2011 | 2 | 12:21 | Defensive | Tim Connolly |
| Apr 3, 2011 | 2 | 01:40 | Offensive | Tim Connolly |
| Mar 15, 2011 | 3 | 09:23 | Defensive | Tim Connolly |
| Mar 15, 2011 | 1 | 14:18 | Offensive | Tim Connolly |
| Mar 15, 2011 | 1 | 14:01 | Offensive | Tim Connolly |
| Mar 15, 2011 | 1 | 11:48 | Offensive | Jussi Jokinen |
| Mar 15, 2011 | 1 | 00:17 | Neutral | Jussi Jokinen |
| Mar 3, 2011 | 2 | 03:38 | Offensive | Tim Connolly |