Scouting Report
Tim Connolly holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Connolly on neutral-zone draws (57% H2H, 7 meetings). Eller wins 32.4% vs right-shot opponents — Connolly shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Eller 43.9% vs Connolly 46.3% (-3.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Eller 51.0%
Defensive zone
Eller 57.8%
Neutral zone
Eller 55.9%
Result
Lars Eller favored at 55.6%
55.6%
44.4%
Eller
Connolly
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Eller
Connolly
Last 9: Eller 3-6 Connolly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Connolly
0
1
Eller
Connolly
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Connolly
0
1
Eller
Connolly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Connolly
3
4
Eller
Connolly
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Eller
Connolly
Edge
Even Strength
43.0% (402)
47.0% (702)
-4.0%
Power Play
16.7% (12)
49.7% (165)
-33.0%
Penalty Kill
66.7% (6)
29.9% (97)
+36.8%
On penalty kill, Eller has a +36.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Connolly shoots right. Eller is 32.4% vs right-shot opponents (173).
Eller shoots left. Connolly is 45.8% vs left-shot opponents (631).
Home / Away
Eller
Connolly
Home
44.6% (184)
46.7% (512)
Away
40.9% (247)
45.1% (457)
By Period
Eller
Connolly
P1
45.3%
46.5%
P2
41.5%
47.5%
P3
39.9%
44.0%
OT
50.0%
40.9%
Final 5 min
40.7%
42.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
42.5%
Connolly
50.0%▬
51.0%
45.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2011 | 3 | 19:51 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Mar 22, 2011 | 3 | 19:38 | Neutral | Tim Connolly |
| Nov 5, 2010 | 2 | 16:09 | Neutral | Tim Connolly |
| Nov 5, 2010 | 2 | 09:02 | Neutral | Tim Connolly |
| Nov 5, 2010 | 2 | 00:47 | Offensive | Tim Connolly |
| Nov 5, 2010 | 1 | 17:29 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Nov 5, 2010 | 1 | 17:18 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Nov 5, 2010 | 1 | 04:08 | Neutral | Tim Connolly |
| Nov 5, 2010 | 1 | 00:56 | Defensive | Tim Connolly |