Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (49.5% vs 48.7%). Look for Connolly on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thompson 49.6% vs Connolly 48.9% (+0.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Connolly 81.5%
Defensive zone
Thompson 68.9%
Neutral zone
Thompson 51.5%
Result
Tim Connolly favored at 71.4%
28.6%
71.4%
Thompson
Connolly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Thompson
Connolly
Last 5: Thompson 2-3 Connolly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Connolly
1
3
Thompson
Connolly
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
1
0
Thompson
Connolly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thompson
Connolly
Edge
Even Strength
50.2% (408)
47.8% (605)
+2.4%
Power Play
69.2% (13)
51.2% (86)
+18.0%
Penalty Kill
47.0% (164)
55.1% (89)
-8.1%
On power play, Thompson has a +18.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Connolly shoots right. Thompson is 50.0% vs right-shot opponents (238).
Thompson shoots left. Connolly is 48.7% vs left-shot opponents (548).
Home / Away
Thompson
Connolly
Home
49.3% (304)
51.1% (358)
Away
49.7% (288)
46.7% (428)
By Period
Thompson
Connolly
P1
49.7%
48.7%
P2
46.9%
48.1%
P3
52.1%
50.4%
OT
20.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
51.7%
41.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thompson
64.0%▲
59.0%
49.5%
Connolly
50.0%▬
51.0%
48.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2012 | 2 | 08:51 | Offensive | Tim Connolly |
| Jan 3, 2012 | 1 | 16:55 | Offensive | Nate Thompson |
| Jan 3, 2012 | 1 | 11:58 | Offensive | Tim Connolly |
| Nov 22, 2011 | 3 | 02:40 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Nov 22, 2011 | 3 | 02:29 | Offensive | Tim Connolly |