Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (49.4% vs 48.7%). Look for Connolly on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthias 49.5% vs Connolly 48.9% (+0.7%)
H2H factor
Connolly leads 8-3 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Connolly 55.7%
Defensive zone
Matthias 53.5%
Neutral zone
Matthias 60.2%
Result
Shawn Matthias favored at 55.7%
55.7%
44.3%
Matthias
Connolly
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
8
(11 meetings)
3
8
Matthias
Connolly
Last 10: Matthias 3-7 Connolly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Connolly
0
1
Matthias
Connolly
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Connolly
2
3
Matthias
Connolly
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Connolly
1
4
Matthias
Connolly
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthias
Connolly
Edge
Even Strength
49.4% (510)
47.8% (605)
+1.6%
Power Play
55.3% (38)
51.2% (86)
+4.1%
Penalty Kill
46.5% (43)
55.1% (89)
-8.6%
On penalty kill, Connolly has a +8.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Connolly shoots right. Matthias is 47.8% vs right-shot opponents (207).
Matthias shoots left. Connolly is 48.7% vs left-shot opponents (548).
Home / Away
Matthias
Connolly
Home
47.6% (315)
51.1% (358)
Away
51.4% (282)
46.7% (428)
By Period
Matthias
Connolly
P1
50.0%
48.7%
P2
51.9%
48.1%
P3
45.8%
50.4%
OT
75.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
39.7%
41.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthias
40.0%▼
41.5%
49.4%
Connolly
50.0%▬
51.0%
48.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2012 | 3 | 09:49 | Neutral | Tim Connolly |
| Feb 28, 2012 | 1 | 02:10 | Offensive | Tim Connolly |
| Dec 27, 2011 | 3 | 11:44 | Neutral | Tim Connolly |
| Dec 27, 2011 | 3 | 07:30 | Defensive | Tim Connolly |
| Dec 27, 2011 | 3 | 01:13 | Defensive | Shawn Matthias |
| Dec 27, 2011 | 2 | 15:15 | Defensive | Tim Connolly |
| Dec 27, 2011 | 2 | 05:14 | Defensive | Tim Connolly |
| Dec 27, 2011 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tim Connolly |
| Dec 27, 2011 | 1 | 11:44 | Defensive | Shawn Matthias |
| Dec 27, 2011 | 1 | 00:10 | Neutral | Shawn Matthias |
| Dec 27, 2011 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tim Connolly |