Scouting Report
Tim Connolly holds a +3.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Stapleton on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Connolly 48.9% vs Stapleton 46.5% (+3.8%)
H2H factor
Stapleton leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Stapleton 63.5%
Defensive zone
Connolly 52.5%
Neutral zone
Stapleton 63.7%
Result
Tim Stapleton favored at 57.7%
42.3%
57.7%
Connolly
Stapleton
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
7
(11 meetings)
4
7
Connolly
Stapleton
Last 10: Connolly 4-6 Stapleton
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stapleton
1
3
Connolly
Stapleton
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Connolly
3
1
Connolly
Stapleton
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stapleton
0
3
Connolly
Stapleton
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Connolly
Stapleton
Edge
Even Strength
47.8% (605)
44.0% (207)
+3.8%
Power Play
51.2% (86)
66.7% (3)
-15.5%
Penalty Kill
55.1% (89)
33.3% (3)
+21.8%
On penalty kill, Connolly has a +21.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stapleton shoots right. Connolly is 48.7% vs right-shot opponents (238).
Connolly shoots right. Stapleton is 40.5% vs right-shot opponents (74).
Home / Away
Connolly
Stapleton
Home
51.1% (358)
44.9% (107)
Away
46.7% (428)
45.0% (109)
By Period
Connolly
Stapleton
P1
48.7%
59.4%
P2
48.1%
39.0%
P3
50.4%
38.7%
Final 5 min
41.4%
44.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Connolly
50.0%▬
51.0%
48.7%
Stapleton
38.0%▼
44.0%
44.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 5, 2012 | 3 | 15:54 | Defensive | Tim Connolly |
| Jan 5, 2012 | 3 | 15:45 | Defensive | Tim Connolly |
| Jan 5, 2012 | 3 | 15:30 | Offensive | Tim Connolly |
| Jan 5, 2012 | 1 | 15:52 | Offensive | Tim Stapleton |
| Jan 5, 2012 | 1 | 15:34 | Offensive | Tim Stapleton |
| Dec 31, 2011 | 2 | 06:47 | Defensive | Tim Connolly |
| Dec 31, 2011 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tim Stapleton |
| Dec 31, 2011 | 1 | 17:58 | Defensive | Tim Stapleton |
| Dec 31, 2011 | 1 | 12:57 | Neutral | Tim Stapleton |
| Dec 31, 2011 | 1 | 03:06 | Offensive | Tim Stapleton |
| Dec 31, 2011 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tim Stapleton |