Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (45.9% vs 46.3%). Look for Connolly on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Connolly wins 45.8% vs left-shot opponents — Galiardi shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Connolly 46.3% vs Galiardi 47.9% (-0.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Connolly 62.3%
Defensive zone
Galiardi 63.1%
Neutral zone
Galiardi 50.9%
Result
TJ Galiardi favored at 50.7%
49.3%
50.7%
Connolly
Galiardi
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Connolly
Galiardi
Last 5: Connolly 4-1 Galiardi
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Connolly
1
0
Connolly
Galiardi
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Connolly
1
0
Connolly
Galiardi
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Connolly
2
1
Connolly
Galiardi
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Connolly
Galiardi
Edge
Even Strength
47.0% (702)
46.9% (98)
+0.1%
Power Play
49.7% (165)
40.0% (5)
+9.7%
Penalty Kill
29.9% (97)
46.7% (30)
-16.8%
On penalty kill, Galiardi has a +16.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Galiardi shoots left. Connolly is 45.8% vs left-shot opponents (631).
Connolly shoots right. Galiardi is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (52).
Home / Away
Connolly
Galiardi
Home
46.7% (512)
48.2% (112)
Away
45.1% (457)
36.4% (22)
By Period
Connolly
Galiardi
P1
46.5%
48.1%
P2
47.5%
45.3%
P3
44.0%
45.3%
OT
40.9%
100.0%
Final 5 min
42.9%
44.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Connolly
50.0%▬
51.0%
45.9%
Galiardi
36.0%▼
38.5%
46.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 4, 2011 | 3 | 14:34 | Offensive | Tim Connolly |
| Jan 4, 2011 | 3 | 08:46 | Defensive | Tim Connolly |
| Jan 4, 2011 | 3 | 06:02 | Neutral | TJ Galiardi |
| Jan 4, 2011 | 1 | 16:03 | Neutral | Tim Connolly |
| Jan 4, 2011 | 1 | 14:49 | Neutral | Tim Connolly |