Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Paquette wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Paquette 50.8% vs Hertl 54.3% (-3.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Paquette 63.8%
Defensive zone
Paquette 75.2%
Neutral zone
Paquette 71.8%
Result
Cedric Paquette favored at 70.0%
70.0%
30.0%
Paquette
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Paquette
Hertl
Last 7: Paquette 2-5 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Paquette
Hertl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Paquette
Hertl
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Paquette
Hertl
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Paquette
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
51.2% (529)
54.7% (570)
-3.5%
Power Play
58.8% (17)
55.2% (143)
+3.6%
Penalty Kill
46.7% (75)
54.5% (77)
-7.8%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +7.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Paquette is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (379).
Paquette shoots left. Hertl is 53.0% vs left-shot opponents (498).
Home / Away
Paquette
Hertl
Home
51.9% (339)
56.2% (379)
Away
49.6% (282)
53.5% (411)
By Period
Paquette
Hertl
P1
52.7%
53.4%
P2
53.1%
52.7%
P3
47.1%
57.6%
OT
0.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
47.2%
53.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Paquette
28.0%▼
38.5%
50.9%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2019 | 3 | 14:35 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 7, 2019 | 3 | 00:33 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 7, 2019 | 2 | 19:53 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 7, 2019 | 2 | 19:33 | Neutral | Cedric Paquette |
| Dec 7, 2019 | 2 | 06:14 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 7, 2019 | 1 | 14:14 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 7, 2019 | 1 | 04:33 | Neutral | Cedric Paquette |