Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +8.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Staal wins 46.5% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 46.6% vs Hertl 54.5% (-8.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Staal 71.3%
Defensive zone
Staal 93.4%
Neutral zone
Staal 83.6%
Result
Eric Staal favored at 75.9%
75.9%
24.1%
Staal
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
8
(8 meetings)
0
8
Staal
Hertl
Last 8: Staal 0-8 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
5
Staal
Hertl
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
3
Staal
Hertl
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
49.6% (565)
54.1% (1,117)
-4.5%
Power Play
35.0% (20)
59.8% (296)
-24.8%
Penalty Kill
35.4% (158)
34.4% (32)
+1.0%
On power play, Hertl has a +24.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Staal is 46.5% vs left-shot opponents (475).
Staal shoots left. Hertl is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (883).
Home / Away
Staal
Hertl
Home
46.1% (380)
54.3% (709)
Away
46.3% (363)
55.3% (736)
By Period
Staal
Hertl
P1
45.7%
51.6%
P2
46.2%
53.6%
P3
46.5%
58.6%
Final 5 min
47.4%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
44.0%▼
47.0%
46.2%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 9, 2023 | 3 | 18:21 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 9, 2023 | 3 | 15:35 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 9, 2023 | 3 | 15:08 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 9, 2023 | 2 | 08:23 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 9, 2023 | 1 | 10:22 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 9, 2023 | 1 | 02:25 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 2 | 07:50 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |