Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +7.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mitchell 49.0% vs Hertl 54.9% (-7.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mitchell 62.8%
Defensive zone
Mitchell 82.9%
Neutral zone
Mitchell 68.2%
Result
John Mitchell favored at 68.0%
68.0%
32.0%
Mitchell
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Mitchell
Hertl
Last 6: Mitchell 1-5 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
3
Mitchell
Hertl
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Mitchell
Hertl
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Mitchell
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mitchell
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (676)
55.0% (382)
-2.5%
Power Play
55.6% (18)
59.7% (67)
-4.1%
Penalty Kill
32.3% (155)
75.0% (8)
-42.7%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +42.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Mitchell is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (541).
Mitchell shoots left. Hertl is 55.7% vs left-shot opponents (289).
Home / Away
Mitchell
Hertl
Home
52.2% (450)
58.8% (221)
Away
45.1% (399)
53.4% (236)
By Period
Mitchell
Hertl
P1
51.2%
52.6%
P2
50.2%
53.6%
P3
44.8%
62.4%
OT
80.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
51.3%
61.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mitchell
66.0%▲
56.5%
48.9%
Hertl
58.0%▬
58.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 26, 2016 | 3 | 18:29 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 26, 2016 | 2 | 15:28 | Neutral | John Mitchell |
| Dec 28, 2015 | 3 | 19:35 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 28, 2015 | 1 | 01:47 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 1, 2015 | 2 | 15:12 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 1, 2015 | 2 | 12:24 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |