Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Johnson on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Johnson 50.3% vs Hertl 52.3% (-2.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 86.4%
Defensive zone
Johnson 63.6%
Neutral zone
Hertl 67.5%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 55.1%
44.9%
55.1%
Johnson
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Johnson
Hertl
Last 6: Johnson 4-2 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Johnson
Hertl
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johnson
3
0
Johnson
Hertl
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Johnson
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Johnson
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
51.0% (196)
51.6% (1,084)
-0.6%
Power Play
50.0% (2)
61.0% (246)
-11.0%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (14)
44.1% (136)
-1.2%
On power play, Hertl has a +11.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Johnson is 49.3% vs left-shot opponents (142).
Johnson shoots right. Hertl is 57.2% vs right-shot opponents (526).
Home / Away
Johnson
Hertl
Home
48.8% (125)
55.2% (696)
Away
52.9% (87)
50.0% (770)
By Period
Johnson
Hertl
P1
54.2%
55.4%
P2
44.2%
54.8%
P3
54.8%
48.9%
OT
0.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
50.0%
54.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Johnson
54.0%▲
51.0%
50.5%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
52.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14, 2022 | 3 | 19:57 | Defensive | Reese Johnson |
| Apr 14, 2022 | 3 | 15:29 | Defensive | Reese Johnson |
| Apr 14, 2022 | 2 | 15:53 | Neutral | Reese Johnson |
| Apr 14, 2022 | 2 | 13:35 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 14, 2022 | 2 | 00:21 | Defensive | Reese Johnson |
| Apr 14, 2022 | 1 | 18:34 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |