Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Rask on offensive-zone draws (82% H2H, 11 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hertl 54.2% vs Rask 50.1% (+4.1%)
H2H factor
Rask leads 18-14 in 32 meetings
Offensive zone
Rask 67.9%
Defensive zone
Rask 66.0%
Neutral zone
Rask 67.5%
Result
Victor Rask favored at 67.2%
32.8%
67.2%
Hertl
Rask
Head-to-Head Record
14
-
18
(32 meetings)
14
18
Hertl
Rask
Last 10: Hertl 4-6 Rask
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Rask
2
9
Hertl
Rask
11 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
6
3
Hertl
Rask
9 total
Neutral Zone
Even
6
6
Hertl
Rask
12 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hertl
Rask
Edge
Even Strength
53.8% (8,268)
50.0% (4,428)
+3.8%
Power Play
59.3% (1,975)
54.3% (363)
+5.0%
Penalty Kill
46.3% (806)
35.2% (54)
+11.1%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +11.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Rask shoots left. Hertl is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (6,916).
Hertl shoots left. Rask is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (3,102).
Home / Away
Hertl
Rask
Home
55.7% (5,344)
52.0% (2,380)
Away
52.8% (5,705)
48.3% (2,465)
By Period
Hertl
Rask
P1
53.6%
50.7%
P2
54.1%
48.9%
P3
55.3%
50.7%
OT
46.5%
52.1%
Final 5 min
54.6%
48.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.2%
Rask
60.0%▲
49.5%
50.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 9, 2021 | 2 | 16:24 | Offensive | Victor Rask |
| Dec 9, 2021 | 1 | 11:30 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 9, 2021 | 1 | 05:45 | Offensive | Victor Rask |
| Apr 24, 2021 | 2 | 05:02 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 17, 2021 | 2 | 09:53 | Offensive | Victor Rask |
| Apr 17, 2021 | 1 | 16:27 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 17, 2021 | 1 | 12:02 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 17, 2021 | 1 | 08:42 | Neutral | Victor Rask |
| Apr 16, 2021 | 3 | 07:59 | Offensive | Victor Rask |
| Apr 16, 2021 | 1 | 18:56 | Offensive | Victor Rask |
| Mar 31, 2021 | 3 | 14:26 | Defensive | Victor Rask |
| Mar 31, 2021 | 3 | 08:23 | Neutral | Victor Rask |
| Mar 29, 2021 | 3 | 18:52 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 29, 2021 | 1 | 01:25 | Defensive | Victor Rask |
| Feb 22, 2021 | 3 | 11:24 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 22, 2021 | 2 | 13:28 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 22, 2021 | 2 | 01:06 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 22, 2021 | 2 | 00:55 | Offensive | Victor Rask |
| Feb 22, 2021 | 1 | 07:49 | Neutral | Victor Rask |
| Feb 22, 2021 | 1 | 07:34 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |