Scouting Report
Tomas Nosek holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Kellman on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Kellman wins 46.2% vs left-shot opponents — Nosek shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kellman 49.7% vs Nosek 51.3% (-2.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nosek 66.8%
Defensive zone
Nosek 55.1%
Neutral zone
Nosek 58.6%
Result
Tomas Nosek favored at 58.0%
42.0%
58.0%
Kellman
Nosek
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Kellman
Nosek
Last 9: Kellman 5-4 Nosek
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nosek
0
1
Kellman
Nosek
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kellman
3
1
Kellman
Nosek
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Kellman
Nosek
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kellman
Nosek
Edge
Even Strength
46.2% (52)
52.7% (355)
-6.5%
Power Play
100.0% (1)
28.6% (7)
+71.4%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (2)
44.0% (25)
+56.0%
On power play, Kellman has a +71.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nosek shoots left. Kellman is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (39).
Kellman shoots left. Nosek is 51.3% vs left-shot opponents (269).
Home / Away
Kellman
Nosek
Home
40.0% (20)
52.8% (214)
Away
54.3% (35)
50.3% (173)
By Period
Kellman
Nosek
P1
44.4%
54.2%
P2
52.9%
53.1%
P3
50.0%
46.4%
Final 5 min
90.0%
52.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kellman
50.0%▬
50.5%
49.1%
Nosek
56.0%▬
55.5%
51.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 21, 2021 | 2 | 13:36 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Apr 21, 2021 | 1 | 18:41 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Apr 21, 2021 | 1 | 01:40 | Defensive | Joel Kellman |
| Apr 19, 2021 | 1 | 09:27 | Neutral | Joel Kellman |
| Mar 6, 2021 | 3 | 14:02 | Defensive | Joel Kellman |
| Mar 6, 2021 | 3 | 08:30 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 6, 2021 | 2 | 18:12 | Defensive | Joel Kellman |
| Mar 6, 2021 | 2 | 05:01 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 6, 2021 | 2 | 01:47 | Neutral | Joel Kellman |