Scouting Report
Derek Stepan holds a +9.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Novak on offensive-zone draws (57% H2H, 7 meetings). Stepan wins 54.8% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 53.4% vs Novak 45.6% (+9.8%)
H2H factor
Stepan leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Stepan 55.7%
Defensive zone
Stepan 81.1%
Neutral zone
Stepan 72.8%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 62.5%
62.5%
37.5%
Stepan
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
4
(10 meetings)
6
4
Stepan
Novak
Last 10: Stepan 6-4 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
3
4
Stepan
Novak
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
2
0
Stepan
Novak
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stepan
1
0
Stepan
Novak
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
55.3% (358)
43.8% (384)
+11.5%
Power Play
0.0% (3)
58.8% (17)
-58.8%
Penalty Kill
50.8% (61)
100.0% (1)
-49.2%
On power play, Novak has a +58.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Stepan is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (314).
Stepan shoots right. Novak is 45.6% vs right-shot opponents (149).
Home / Away
Stepan
Novak
Home
57.7% (213)
46.5% (202)
Away
50.7% (209)
42.5% (200)
By Period
Stepan
Novak
P1
56.3%
49.2%
P2
48.9%
44.2%
P3
57.1%
40.0%
Final 5 min
57.6%
52.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
54.3%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
44.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2023 | 3 | 19:21 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 2 | 19:55 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 1 | 16:00 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 1 | 11:15 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 5, 2023 | 3 | 05:20 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 5, 2023 | 3 | 05:13 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 5, 2023 | 3 | 05:06 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 5, 2023 | 1 | 18:36 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 5, 2023 | 1 | 04:12 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 5, 2023 | 1 | 01:30 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |