Scouting Report
Nolan Patrick holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Patrick on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Patrick wins 54.8% vs right-shot opponents — Zajac shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Patrick 52.1% vs Zajac 51.2% (+1.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Patrick 58.4%
Defensive zone
Zajac 66.2%
Neutral zone
Zajac 62.6%
Result
Travis Zajac favored at 58.7%
41.3%
58.7%
Patrick
Zajac
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Patrick
Zajac
Last 9: Patrick 6-3 Zajac
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Patrick
2
0
Patrick
Zajac
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Patrick
Zajac
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Patrick
3
2
Patrick
Zajac
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Patrick
Zajac
Edge
Even Strength
51.2% (371)
53.5% (480)
-2.3%
Power Play
62.2% (37)
48.4% (62)
+13.8%
Penalty Kill
59.1% (22)
37.7% (61)
+21.4%
On penalty kill, Patrick has a +21.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zajac shoots right. Patrick is 54.8% vs right-shot opponents (188).
Patrick shoots right. Zajac is 49.1% vs right-shot opponents (232).
Home / Away
Patrick
Zajac
Home
48.5% (231)
51.7% (352)
Away
57.3% (199)
51.0% (251)
By Period
Patrick
Zajac
P1
52.0%
45.0%
P2
52.3%
61.5%
P3
53.2%
46.0%
OT
66.7%
57.1%
Final 5 min
56.0%
54.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Patrick
36.0%▼
49.5%
52.6%
Zajac
62.0%▲
52.5%
51.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8, 2021 | 1 | 06:10 | Neutral | Nolan Patrick |
| Mar 23, 2021 | 3 | 11:37 | Neutral | Travis Zajac |
| Mar 23, 2021 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nolan Patrick |
| Mar 23, 2021 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Travis Zajac |
| Mar 23, 2021 | 1 | 14:16 | Neutral | Nolan Patrick |
| Jan 28, 2021 | 3 | 19:41 | Defensive | Nolan Patrick |
| Jan 26, 2021 | 2 | 19:39 | Defensive | Travis Zajac |
| Jan 26, 2021 | 2 | 06:42 | Offensive | Nolan Patrick |
| Jan 26, 2021 | 1 | 10:16 | Offensive | Nolan Patrick |