Michael McCarron vs Trevor Zegras
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Michael McCarron holds a +22.5% FO% edge overall. Look for McCarron on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). McCarron wins 54.4% vs left-shot opponents — Zegras shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McCarron 52.5% vs Zegras 35.4% (+22.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McCarron 56.4%
Defensive zone
McCarron 97.8%
Neutral zone
McCarron 93.4%
Result
Michael McCarron favored at 91.3%
91.3%
8.7%
McCarron
Zegras
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
1
(7 meetings)
6
1
McCarron
Zegras
Last 7: McCarron 6-1 Zegras
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zegras
0
1
McCarron
Zegras
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McCarron
5
0
McCarron
Zegras
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McCarron
1
0
McCarron
Zegras
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McCarron
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
53.1% (672)
29.6% (230)
+23.5%
Power Play
18.2% (11)
32.1% (56)
-13.9%
Penalty Kill
53.7% (205)
100.0% (1)
-46.3%
On penalty kill, Zegras has a +46.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. McCarron is 54.4% vs left-shot opponents (623).
McCarron shoots right. Zegras is 29.7% vs right-shot opponents (111).
Home / Away
McCarron
Zegras
Home
52.8% (477)
30.6% (147)
Away
52.8% (411)
30.0% (140)
By Period
McCarron
Zegras
P1
56.5%
33.0%
P2
53.2%
31.7%
P3
49.0%
25.6%
OT
0.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
52.3%
29.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McCarron
48.0%▬
48.5%
52.8%
Zegras
16.0%▼
26.5%
30.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2026 | 1 | 17:46 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 1 | 10:52 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Nov 6, 2025 | 3 | 02:03 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Nov 6, 2025 | 2 | 16:49 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Nov 6, 2025 | 2 | 03:34 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 3 | 08:50 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 2 | 02:59 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |