Scouting Report
Tyler Seguin holds a +15.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Seguin on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Zegras wins 37.8% vs right-shot opponents — Seguin shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zegras 39.2% vs Seguin 53.6% (-15.0%)
H2H factor
Seguin leads 11-4 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Zegras 91.1%
Defensive zone
Zegras 74.7%
Neutral zone
Zegras 91.7%
Result
Trevor Zegras favored at 86.9%
86.9%
13.1%
Zegras
Seguin
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
11
(15 meetings)
4
11
Zegras
Seguin
Last 10: Zegras 3-7 Seguin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
3
3
Zegras
Seguin
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Seguin
0
4
Zegras
Seguin
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Seguin
1
4
Zegras
Seguin
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zegras
Seguin
Edge
Even Strength
38.6% (1,669)
53.7% (8,071)
-15.1%
Power Play
38.5% (148)
55.9% (810)
-17.4%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (7)
49.3% (762)
-20.7%
On penalty kill, Seguin has a +20.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Seguin shoots right. Zegras is 37.8% vs right-shot opponents (596).
Zegras shoots left. Seguin is 53.4% vs left-shot opponents (6,798).
Home / Away
Zegras
Seguin
Home
39.9% (882)
55.9% (4,759)
Away
37.4% (942)
51.4% (4,885)
By Period
Zegras
Seguin
P1
40.2%
52.8%
P2
38.0%
53.3%
P3
37.7%
54.7%
OT
31.6%
54.7%
Final 5 min
40.3%
54.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zegras
16.0%▼
26.5%
38.6%
Seguin
42.0%▼
54.0%
53.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 15, 2025 | 2 | 12:29 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Nov 18, 2024 | 3 | 17:51 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Nov 18, 2024 | 3 | 08:21 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 3 | 09:49 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 3 | 07:00 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Feb 6, 2023 | 1 | 15:42 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Jan 4, 2023 | 3 | 06:17 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Jan 4, 2023 | 2 | 00:35 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Jan 4, 2023 | 1 | 01:04 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Dec 1, 2022 | 2 | 07:43 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Apr 29, 2022 | 2 | 00:59 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Apr 29, 2022 | 1 | 03:56 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Mar 31, 2022 | 3 | 16:39 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Mar 29, 2022 | 2 | 05:51 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Mar 29, 2022 | 2 | 03:54 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |