Scouting Report
Adam Lowry holds a +3.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Bozak on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Lowry wins 54.0% vs right-shot opponents — Bozak shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 57.0% vs Bozak 53.9% (+3.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bozak 82.4%
Defensive zone
Bozak 55.5%
Neutral zone
Bozak 64.0%
Result
Tyler Bozak favored at 65.3%
34.7%
65.3%
Lowry
Bozak
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Lowry
Bozak
Last 9: Lowry 3-6 Bozak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Lowry
Bozak
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bozak
1
2
Lowry
Bozak
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bozak
1
3
Lowry
Bozak
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Bozak
Edge
Even Strength
58.6% (843)
55.4% (719)
+3.2%
Power Play
65.0% (20)
45.1% (51)
+19.9%
Penalty Kill
53.8% (253)
50.0% (60)
+3.8%
On power play, Lowry has a +19.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bozak shoots right. Lowry is 54.0% vs right-shot opponents (352).
Lowry shoots left. Bozak is 54.5% vs left-shot opponents (567).
Home / Away
Lowry
Bozak
Home
61.0% (602)
55.5% (443)
Away
53.7% (514)
53.0% (387)
By Period
Lowry
Bozak
P1
57.3%
53.3%
P2
58.1%
54.7%
P3
57.4%
55.4%
OT
50.0%
40.0%
Final 5 min
61.4%
55.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
57.6%
Bozak
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2018 | 3 | 08:48 | Offensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Dec 7, 2018 | 2 | 16:30 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 24, 2018 | 2 | 16:02 | Neutral | Tyler Bozak |
| Nov 24, 2018 | 1 | 17:50 | Neutral | Tyler Bozak |
| Nov 24, 2018 | 1 | 04:29 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Nov 24, 2018 | 1 | 04:24 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Oct 22, 2018 | 3 | 05:11 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Oct 4, 2018 | 3 | 18:41 | Neutral | Tyler Bozak |
| Oct 4, 2018 | 1 | 08:51 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |