Scouting Report
Tyler Bozak holds a +6.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Bozak on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Nelson wins 39.8% vs right-shot opponents — Bozak shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 43.7% vs Bozak 48.8% (-6.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 65.2%
Defensive zone
Nelson 63.9%
Neutral zone
Nelson 65.8%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 64.7%
64.7%
35.3%
Nelson
Bozak
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
7
(8 meetings)
1
7
Nelson
Bozak
Last 8: Nelson 1-7 Bozak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bozak
0
2
Nelson
Bozak
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bozak
1
3
Nelson
Bozak
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bozak
0
2
Nelson
Bozak
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Bozak
Edge
Even Strength
42.1% (385)
48.8% (1,036)
-6.7%
Power Play
47.5% (40)
53.8% (225)
-6.3%
Penalty Kill
38.5% (26)
39.1% (138)
-0.6%
On even strength, Bozak has a +6.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bozak shoots right. Nelson is 39.8% vs right-shot opponents (196).
Nelson shoots left. Bozak is 47.8% vs left-shot opponents (916).
Home / Away
Nelson
Bozak
Home
43.8% (224)
50.8% (608)
Away
41.0% (227)
47.0% (791)
By Period
Nelson
Bozak
P1
48.1%
48.0%
P2
38.4%
48.1%
P3
39.2%
49.8%
OT
75.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
41.4%
50.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
42.4%
Bozak
46.0%▼
48.5%
48.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2014 | 3 | 19:42 | Neutral | Tyler Bozak |
| Feb 27, 2014 | 3 | 15:34 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Feb 27, 2014 | 2 | 17:30 | Offensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Feb 27, 2014 | 2 | 14:33 | Offensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Feb 27, 2014 | 2 | 08:25 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 27, 2014 | 2 | 04:22 | Neutral | Tyler Bozak |
| Feb 27, 2014 | 2 | 03:13 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Feb 27, 2014 | 1 | 06:24 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |