Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.2% vs 53.5%). Look for Bozak on offensive-zone draws (68% H2H, 19 meetings). Pavelski wins 55.9% vs right-shot opponents — Bozak shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.1% vs Bozak 53.4% (+0.7%)
H2H factor
Bozak leads 23-23 in 46 meetings
Offensive zone
Bozak 50.8%
Defensive zone
Bozak 51.2%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 50.7%
Result
Tyler Bozak favored at 50.6%
49.4%
50.6%
Pavelski
Bozak
Head-to-Head Record
23
-
23
(46 meetings)
23
23
Pavelski
Bozak
Last 10: Pavelski 5-5 Bozak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bozak
6
13
Pavelski
Bozak
19 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
10
7
Pavelski
Bozak
17 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
7
3
Pavelski
Bozak
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Bozak
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (8,791)
53.7% (9,596)
-0.1%
Power Play
58.2% (2,122)
55.2% (1,990)
+3.0%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (1,138)
48.0% (1,094)
+2.9%
On power play, Pavelski has a +3.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bozak shoots right. Pavelski is 55.9% vs right-shot opponents (2,971).
Pavelski shoots right. Bozak is 56.0% vs right-shot opponents (4,312).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Bozak
Home
56.4% (5,998)
56.0% (6,333)
Away
52.0% (6,076)
51.0% (6,396)
By Period
Pavelski
Bozak
P1
53.5%
53.2%
P2
55.2%
52.8%
P3
53.9%
54.5%
OT
52.3%
52.9%
Final 5 min
54.4%
53.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Bozak
46.0%▼
48.5%
53.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 17, 2021 | 3 | 15:37 | Neutral | Tyler Bozak |
| Dec 17, 2021 | 1 | 14:52 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 14, 2021 | 3 | 16:58 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 29, 2020 | 1 | 10:08 | Offensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Feb 8, 2020 | 3 | 14:15 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 8, 2020 | 1 | 05:23 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Nov 29, 2019 | 3 | 16:09 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 4, 2018 | 3 | 19:58 | Offensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Jan 4, 2018 | 3 | 11:39 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Oct 30, 2017 | 2 | 13:08 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 30, 2017 | 1 | 13:49 | Offensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Feb 28, 2017 | 3 | 04:35 | Neutral | Tyler Bozak |
| Feb 28, 2017 | 3 | 01:07 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 28, 2017 | 2 | 13:40 | Offensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Feb 28, 2017 | 1 | 04:27 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 17, 2015 | 1 | 04:50 | Offensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Mar 19, 2015 | 2 | 16:08 | Offensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Mar 19, 2015 | 2 | 06:21 | Offensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Mar 19, 2015 | 2 | 06:13 | Offensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Mar 19, 2015 | 2 | 04:48 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |