Scouting Report
Tyler Bozak holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Bozak on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Thornton wins 54.7% vs right-shot opponents — Bozak shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thornton 52.4% vs Bozak 53.9% (-1.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thornton 58.1%
Defensive zone
Thornton 52.7%
Neutral zone
Thornton 57.0%
Result
Joe Thornton favored at 56.3%
56.3%
43.7%
Thornton
Bozak
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Thornton
Bozak
Last 8: Thornton 3-5 Bozak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bozak
1
2
Thornton
Bozak
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bozak
0
2
Thornton
Bozak
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thornton
2
1
Thornton
Bozak
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thornton
Bozak
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (638)
55.4% (719)
-2.9%
Power Play
57.1% (35)
45.1% (51)
+12.0%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (2)
50.0% (60)
+0.0%
On power play, Thornton has a +12.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bozak shoots right. Thornton is 54.7% vs right-shot opponents (236).
Thornton shoots left. Bozak is 54.5% vs left-shot opponents (567).
Home / Away
Thornton
Bozak
Home
54.8% (341)
55.5% (443)
Away
50.6% (334)
53.0% (387)
By Period
Thornton
Bozak
P1
55.2%
53.3%
P2
56.5%
54.7%
P3
47.1%
55.4%
OT
25.0%
40.0%
Final 5 min
49.6%
55.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
52.7%
Bozak
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 9, 2019 | 3 | 08:03 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 9, 2019 | 3 | 04:23 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 9, 2019 | 3 | 01:46 | Offensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Nov 17, 2018 | 2 | 19:00 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 17, 2018 | 2 | 03:34 | Neutral | Tyler Bozak |
| Nov 17, 2018 | 1 | 11:00 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Nov 9, 2018 | 3 | 06:32 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Nov 9, 2018 | 2 | 08:43 | Offensive | Tyler Bozak |