Scouting Report
Johan Larsson holds a +1.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Larsson on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Larsson wins 45.5% vs right-shot opponents — Bozak shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larsson 46.9% vs Bozak 46.2% (+1.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bozak 51.5%
Defensive zone
Larsson 60.1%
Neutral zone
Bozak 53.5%
Result
Tyler Bozak favored at 50.4%
49.6%
50.4%
Larsson
Bozak
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Larsson
Bozak
Last 5: Larsson 3-2 Bozak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bozak
0
1
Larsson
Bozak
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larsson
1
0
Larsson
Bozak
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larsson
2
1
Larsson
Bozak
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larsson
Bozak
Edge
Even Strength
46.7% (345)
46.7% (338)
+0.0%
Power Play
61.1% (18)
50.0% (6)
+11.1%
Penalty Kill
39.0% (59)
32.6% (43)
+6.4%
On power play, Larsson has a +11.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bozak shoots right. Larsson is 45.5% vs right-shot opponents (156).
Larsson shoots left. Bozak is 41.7% vs left-shot opponents (247).
Home / Away
Larsson
Bozak
Home
52.1% (167)
47.9% (194)
Away
42.4% (255)
42.5% (193)
By Period
Larsson
Bozak
P1
50.0%
40.2%
P2
46.7%
51.4%
P3
42.6%
43.1%
OT
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
55.2%
43.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larsson
40.0%▼
46.5%
46.2%
Bozak
46.0%▼
48.5%
45.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2021 | 3 | 19:56 | Neutral | Johan Larsson |
| Oct 18, 2021 | 3 | 12:25 | Neutral | Tyler Bozak |
| Oct 18, 2021 | 2 | 14:40 | Neutral | Johan Larsson |
| Oct 18, 2021 | 2 | 11:24 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |
| Oct 18, 2021 | 2 | 00:43 | Offensive | Tyler Bozak |