Scouting Report
Ben Smith holds a +5.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Johnson on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Smith wins 62.1% vs right-shot opponents — Johnson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Smith 52.6% vs Johnson 48.7% (+5.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Johnson 81.3%
Defensive zone
Smith 77.5%
Neutral zone
Johnson 53.7%
Result
Tyler Johnson favored at 52.9%
47.1%
52.9%
Smith
Johnson
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Smith
Johnson
Last 9: Smith 4-5 Johnson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johnson
0
2
Smith
Johnson
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Smith
2
0
Smith
Johnson
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Johnson
2
3
Smith
Johnson
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Smith
Johnson
Edge
Even Strength
52.8% (127)
48.5% (776)
+4.3%
Power Play
100.0% (1)
56.7% (157)
+43.3%
Penalty Kill
56.1% (57)
26.4% (53)
+29.7%
On power play, Smith has a +43.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnson shoots right. Smith is 62.1% vs right-shot opponents (58).
Smith shoots right. Johnson is 49.7% vs right-shot opponents (338).
Home / Away
Smith
Johnson
Home
56.2% (121)
48.8% (482)
Away
50.0% (64)
48.4% (504)
By Period
Smith
Johnson
P1
55.7%
50.3%
P2
46.3%
48.5%
P3
57.4%
47.0%
OT
100.0%
44.4%
Final 5 min
62.5%
48.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Smith
38.0%▼
49.0%
54.1%
Johnson
42.0%▼
48.0%
48.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2016 | 3 | 18:52 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Mar 15, 2016 | 3 | 09:07 | Neutral | Ben Smith |
| Mar 15, 2016 | 3 | 02:35 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Mar 15, 2016 | 2 | 13:34 | Neutral | Tyler Johnson |
| Mar 15, 2016 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tyler Johnson |
| Mar 15, 2016 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tyler Johnson |
| Feb 29, 2016 | 2 | 14:34 | Neutral | Ben Smith |
| Feb 29, 2016 | 1 | 18:09 | Defensive | Ben Smith |
| Feb 29, 2016 | 1 | 06:57 | Defensive | Ben Smith |