Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +5.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Johnson on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 53.7% vs Johnson 48.8% (+5.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Johnson 68.7%
Defensive zone
Johnson 74.2%
Neutral zone
Johnson 71.9%
Result
Tyler Johnson favored at 70.2%
29.8%
70.2%
Spezza
Johnson
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Spezza
Johnson
Last 6: Spezza 1-5 Johnson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johnson
1
3
Spezza
Johnson
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johnson
0
1
Spezza
Johnson
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Johnson
0
1
Spezza
Johnson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Johnson
Edge
Even Strength
53.0% (998)
49.5% (828)
+3.5%
Power Play
58.5% (248)
54.9% (142)
+3.6%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (16)
36.8% (133)
+13.2%
On penalty kill, Spezza has a +13.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnson shoots right. Spezza is 51.9% vs right-shot opponents (343).
Spezza shoots right. Johnson is 48.5% vs right-shot opponents (375).
Home / Away
Spezza
Johnson
Home
56.4% (626)
50.7% (564)
Away
51.7% (636)
46.6% (539)
By Period
Spezza
Johnson
P1
56.9%
51.2%
P2
51.9%
47.5%
P3
53.9%
48.4%
OT
46.2%
33.3%
Final 5 min
54.7%
48.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.0%
Johnson
42.0%▼
48.0%
48.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2015 | 2 | 18:54 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Feb 5, 2015 | 3 | 18:23 | Defensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Feb 5, 2015 | 2 | 01:46 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 5, 2015 | 1 | 11:24 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Feb 5, 2015 | 1 | 01:13 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Feb 5, 2015 | 1 | 01:01 | Neutral | Tyler Johnson |