Scouting Report
Zack Smith holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Johnson on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Johnson 48.7% vs Smith 51.9% (-3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Johnson 50.9%
Defensive zone
Smith 80.1%
Neutral zone
Smith 60.5%
Result
Zack Smith favored at 57.3%
42.7%
57.3%
Johnson
Smith
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
2
(9 meetings)
7
2
Johnson
Smith
Last 9: Johnson 7-2 Smith
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johnson
5
1
Johnson
Smith
6 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Johnson
Smith
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Johnson
1
0
Johnson
Smith
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Johnson
Smith
Edge
Even Strength
48.5% (776)
53.6% (550)
-5.1%
Power Play
56.7% (157)
53.5% (71)
+3.2%
Penalty Kill
26.4% (53)
43.5% (108)
-17.1%
On penalty kill, Smith has a +17.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Smith shoots left. Johnson is 48.0% vs left-shot opponents (648).
Johnson shoots right. Smith is 48.2% vs right-shot opponents (249).
Home / Away
Johnson
Smith
Home
48.8% (482)
56.5% (352)
Away
48.4% (504)
48.0% (377)
By Period
Johnson
Smith
P1
50.3%
52.0%
P2
48.5%
51.5%
P3
47.0%
52.2%
OT
44.4%
80.0%
Final 5 min
48.8%
58.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Johnson
42.0%▼
48.0%
48.6%
Smith
40.0%▼
47.0%
52.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2016 | 3 | 17:48 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Mar 3, 2016 | 2 | 11:09 | Offensive | Zack Smith |
| Feb 8, 2016 | 3 | 11:29 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Feb 8, 2016 | 3 | 11:06 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Feb 8, 2016 | 3 | 07:39 | Neutral | Tyler Johnson |
| Feb 8, 2016 | 1 | 18:30 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Feb 8, 2016 | 1 | 05:08 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Dec 10, 2015 | 3 | 08:05 | Defensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Dec 10, 2015 | 3 | 05:53 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |