Scouting Report
Tyler Seguin holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Smith on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Seguin wins 57.1% vs left-shot opponents — Smith shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Seguin 55.0% vs Smith 51.9% (+3.5%)
H2H factor
Smith leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Smith 50.3%
Defensive zone
Smith 72.8%
Neutral zone
Smith 61.3%
Result
Zack Smith favored at 67.1%
32.9%
67.1%
Seguin
Smith
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
7
(10 meetings)
3
7
Seguin
Smith
Last 10: Seguin 3-7 Smith
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Smith
2
3
Seguin
Smith
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Smith
1
4
Seguin
Smith
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Seguin
Smith
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (789)
53.6% (550)
+2.3%
Power Play
52.1% (48)
53.5% (71)
-1.4%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (9)
43.5% (108)
+0.9%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Smith shoots left. Seguin is 57.1% vs left-shot opponents (595).
Seguin shoots right. Smith is 48.2% vs right-shot opponents (249).
Home / Away
Seguin
Smith
Home
57.3% (382)
56.5% (352)
Away
54.1% (464)
48.0% (377)
By Period
Seguin
Smith
P1
55.1%
52.0%
P2
57.5%
51.5%
P3
53.7%
52.2%
OT
61.1%
80.0%
Final 5 min
56.5%
58.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Seguin
42.0%▼
54.0%
55.6%
Smith
40.0%▼
47.0%
52.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2016 | 3 | 17:46 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Mar 6, 2016 | 3 | 11:45 | Neutral | Zack Smith |
| Mar 6, 2016 | 3 | 11:32 | Neutral | Zack Smith |
| Mar 6, 2016 | 3 | 07:00 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Mar 6, 2016 | 3 | 06:53 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Mar 6, 2016 | 2 | 10:01 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Mar 6, 2016 | 2 | 00:59 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Mar 6, 2016 | 1 | 10:43 | Neutral | Zack Smith |
| Mar 6, 2016 | 1 | 10:31 | Neutral | Zack Smith |
| Nov 24, 2015 | 1 | 06:04 | Defensive | Zack Smith |