Scouting Report
Tyler Seguin holds a +4.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Smith on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Seguin wins 54.8% vs left-shot opponents — Smith shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Seguin 53.6% vs Smith 49.2% (+4.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Smith 54.7%
Defensive zone
Smith 71.9%
Neutral zone
Smith 61.9%
Result
Zack Smith favored at 62.9%
37.1%
62.9%
Seguin
Smith
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Seguin
Smith
Last 9: Seguin 3-6 Smith
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Smith
1
2
Seguin
Smith
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Smith
0
3
Seguin
Smith
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Seguin
2
1
Seguin
Smith
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Seguin
Smith
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (996)
50.9% (666)
+3.0%
Power Play
56.4% (94)
70.0% (10)
-13.6%
Penalty Kill
52.1% (165)
39.6% (144)
+12.5%
On power play, Smith has a +13.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Smith shoots left. Seguin is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (873).
Seguin shoots right. Smith is 40.9% vs right-shot opponents (298).
Home / Away
Seguin
Smith
Home
55.9% (633)
50.9% (405)
Away
51.8% (622)
47.5% (415)
By Period
Seguin
Smith
P1
55.8%
47.1%
P2
51.7%
49.6%
P3
54.5%
50.4%
OT
38.5%
100.0%
Final 5 min
55.2%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Seguin
42.0%▼
54.0%
53.9%
Smith
40.0%▼
47.0%
49.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 23, 2018 | 3 | 04:40 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Nov 23, 2018 | 2 | 11:08 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Nov 23, 2018 | 2 | 04:25 | Offensive | Zack Smith |
| Oct 15, 2018 | 3 | 10:26 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Oct 15, 2018 | 3 | 10:12 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Oct 15, 2018 | 3 | 05:34 | Offensive | Zack Smith |
| Oct 15, 2018 | 3 | 02:06 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Oct 15, 2018 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Zack Smith |
| Oct 15, 2018 | 2 | 06:23 | Defensive | Zack Smith |