Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Thornton on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Thornton wins 55.5% vs left-shot opponents — Fiddler shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thornton 52.6% vs Fiddler 50.7% (+2.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thornton 82.7%
Defensive zone
Fiddler 73.1%
Neutral zone
Thornton 56.8%
Result
Joe Thornton favored at 60.5%
60.5%
39.5%
Thornton
Fiddler
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Thornton
Fiddler
Last 6: Thornton 5-1 Fiddler
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
2
0
Thornton
Fiddler
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Fiddler
0
1
Thornton
Fiddler
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thornton
3
0
Thornton
Fiddler
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thornton
Fiddler
Edge
Even Strength
51.8% (577)
52.4% (590)
-0.6%
Power Play
57.7% (168)
48.3% (29)
+9.4%
Penalty Kill
37.5% (8)
47.5% (278)
-10.0%
On penalty kill, Fiddler has a +10.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Fiddler shoots left. Thornton is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (449).
Thornton shoots left. Fiddler is 49.4% vs left-shot opponents (577).
Home / Away
Thornton
Fiddler
Home
53.0% (379)
51.6% (434)
Away
52.9% (374)
49.9% (463)
By Period
Thornton
Fiddler
P1
53.3%
45.4%
P2
50.7%
52.1%
P3
54.3%
54.3%
OT
62.5%
50.0%
Final 5 min
51.9%
55.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
53.0%
Fiddler
54.0%▼
58.5%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2016 | 3 | 13:24 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 26, 2016 | 2 | 06:59 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 16, 2016 | 3 | 06:25 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 16, 2016 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 31, 2015 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 31, 2015 | 2 | 07:37 | Defensive | Vernon Fiddler |