Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Duchene wins 55.9% vs left-shot opponents — Sobotka shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 54.9% vs Sobotka 51.6% (+3.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 85.3%
Defensive zone
Sobotka 53.8%
Neutral zone
Duchene 69.7%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 77.5%
77.5%
22.5%
Duchene
Sobotka
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
0
(5 meetings)
5
0
Duchene
Sobotka
Last 5: Duchene 5-0 Sobotka
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
4
0
Duchene
Sobotka
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
0
Duchene
Sobotka
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Sobotka
Edge
Even Strength
55.4% (1,013)
52.9% (522)
+2.5%
Power Play
56.3% (192)
46.7% (15)
+9.6%
Penalty Kill
41.2% (17)
46.1% (76)
-4.9%
On power play, Duchene has a +9.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sobotka shoots left. Duchene is 55.9% vs left-shot opponents (823).
Duchene shoots left. Sobotka is 51.1% vs left-shot opponents (397).
Home / Away
Duchene
Sobotka
Home
56.2% (642)
53.8% (314)
Away
54.3% (580)
49.8% (299)
By Period
Duchene
Sobotka
P1
56.2%
52.2%
P2
56.5%
52.2%
P3
52.9%
51.1%
OT
64.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
52.6%
49.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
55.3%
Sobotka
50.0%▼
52.5%
51.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2018 | 1 | 17:49 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 1, 2018 | 3 | 17:16 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 1, 2018 | 3 | 06:53 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 1, 2018 | 2 | 00:56 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 1, 2018 | 1 | 07:39 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |