Scouting Report
William Karlsson holds a +21.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Karlsson on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Smith wins 38.0% vs left-shot opponents — Karlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Smith 41.4% vs Karlsson 57.1% (-21.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Smith 86.2%
Defensive zone
Smith 82.8%
Neutral zone
Smith 83.7%
Result
Will Smith favored at 83.7%
83.7%
16.3%
Smith
Karlsson
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
5
(5 meetings)
0
5
Smith
Karlsson
Last 5: Smith 0-5 Karlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Karlsson
0
1
Smith
Karlsson
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Karlsson
0
3
Smith
Karlsson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Karlsson
0
1
Smith
Karlsson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Smith
Karlsson
Edge
Even Strength
33.3% (153)
58.6% (597)
-25.3%
Power Play
56.5% (23)
57.9% (57)
-1.4%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (2)
51.9% (52)
-1.9%
On even strength, Karlsson has a +25.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Karlsson shoots left. Smith is 38.0% vs left-shot opponents (129).
Smith shoots right. Karlsson is 59.0% vs right-shot opponents (239).
Home / Away
Smith
Karlsson
Home
35.1% (111)
59.6% (344)
Away
38.8% (67)
56.6% (362)
By Period
Smith
Karlsson
P1
41.5%
53.1%
P2
32.8%
62.1%
P3
33.3%
60.1%
OT
100.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
36.7%
61.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Smith
36.0%▬
36.0%
36.5%
Karlsson
64.0%▲
57.5%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2024 | 1 | 05:05 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 3 | 18:12 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 3 | 01:47 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 2 | 08:10 | Neutral | William Karlsson |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 2 | 03:35 | Defensive | William Karlsson |