Connor Bedard vs William Karlsson
2024-25 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
William Karlsson holds a +19.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Karlsson on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Bedard wins 37.9% vs left-shot opponents — Karlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bedard 39.8% vs Karlsson 57.1% (-19.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bedard 66.8%
Defensive zone
Bedard 77.3%
Neutral zone
Bedard 80.5%
Result
Connor Bedard favored at 75.9%
75.9%
24.1%
Bedard
Karlsson
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Bedard
Karlsson
Last 5: Bedard 1-4 Karlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bedard
1
0
Bedard
Karlsson
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Karlsson
0
3
Bedard
Karlsson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Karlsson
0
1
Bedard
Karlsson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bedard
Karlsson
Edge
Even Strength
38.0% (618)
58.6% (597)
-20.6%
Power Play
38.7% (31)
57.9% (57)
-19.2%
Penalty Kill
57.1% (7)
51.9% (52)
+5.2%
On even strength, Karlsson has a +20.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Karlsson shoots left. Bedard is 37.9% vs left-shot opponents (485).
Bedard shoots right. Karlsson is 59.0% vs right-shot opponents (239).
Home / Away
Bedard
Karlsson
Home
40.5% (316)
59.6% (344)
Away
36.2% (340)
56.6% (362)
By Period
Bedard
Karlsson
P1
37.2%
53.1%
P2
36.9%
62.1%
P3
40.7%
60.1%
OT
50.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
43.4%
61.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bedard
46.0%▲
42.5%
38.3%
Karlsson
64.0%▲
57.5%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2025 | 2 | 04:55 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Mar 28, 2025 | 1 | 07:18 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Mar 28, 2025 | 1 | 01:13 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 3 | 09:54 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 18:58 | Neutral | William Karlsson |