Scouting Report
William Karlsson holds a +11.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Karlsson on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Dewar wins 42.6% vs left-shot opponents — Karlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dewar 45.1% vs Karlsson 54.9% (-11.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Dewar 76.6%
Defensive zone
Dewar 79.1%
Neutral zone
Dewar 78.7%
Result
Connor Dewar favored at 77.3%
77.3%
22.7%
Dewar
Karlsson
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Dewar
Karlsson
Last 6: Dewar 1-5 Karlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Karlsson
1
3
Dewar
Karlsson
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Karlsson
0
2
Dewar
Karlsson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dewar
Karlsson
Edge
Even Strength
45.4% (443)
55.3% (897)
-9.9%
Power Play
75.0% (8)
61.1% (113)
+13.9%
Penalty Kill
28.8% (52)
50.8% (132)
-22.0%
On penalty kill, Karlsson has a +22.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Karlsson shoots left. Dewar is 42.6% vs left-shot opponents (333).
Dewar shoots left. Karlsson is 55.9% vs left-shot opponents (752).
Home / Away
Dewar
Karlsson
Home
43.3% (238)
58.6% (560)
Away
44.9% (265)
52.2% (582)
By Period
Dewar
Karlsson
P1
41.7%
55.8%
P2
46.1%
55.6%
P3
44.4%
55.7%
Final 5 min
44.4%
56.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dewar
44.0%▬
43.5%
44.1%
Karlsson
64.0%▲
57.5%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2023 | 3 | 11:58 | Neutral | William Karlsson |
| Apr 3, 2023 | 1 | 09:59 | Neutral | William Karlsson |
| Apr 3, 2023 | 1 | 06:43 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Apr 3, 2023 | 1 | 03:30 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Apr 1, 2023 | 1 | 13:59 | Offensive | Connor Dewar |
| Feb 9, 2023 | 1 | 17:02 | Offensive | William Karlsson |