Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (55.2% vs 55.3%). Look for Karlsson on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Grant wins 53.0% vs left-shot opponents — Karlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Grant 54.3% vs Karlsson 54.9% (-0.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Karlsson 55.1%
Defensive zone
Grant 82.8%
Neutral zone
Grant 74.9%
Result
Derek Grant favored at 68.9%
68.9%
31.1%
Grant
Karlsson
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
5
(5 meetings)
0
5
Grant
Karlsson
Last 5: Grant 0-5 Karlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Karlsson
0
1
Grant
Karlsson
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Karlsson
0
4
Grant
Karlsson
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Grant
Karlsson
Edge
Even Strength
56.5% (308)
55.3% (897)
+1.2%
Power Play
65.3% (49)
61.1% (113)
+4.2%
Penalty Kill
48.5% (136)
50.8% (132)
-2.3%
On power play, Grant has a +4.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Karlsson shoots left. Grant is 53.0% vs left-shot opponents (313).
Grant shoots left. Karlsson is 55.9% vs left-shot opponents (752).
Home / Away
Grant
Karlsson
Home
60.3% (257)
58.6% (560)
Away
49.6% (236)
52.2% (582)
By Period
Grant
Karlsson
P1
54.7%
55.8%
P2
54.0%
55.6%
P3
57.1%
55.7%
OT
0.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
51.9%
56.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Grant
48.0%▼
57.5%
55.2%
Karlsson
64.0%▲
57.5%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2022 | 3 | 10:49 | Neutral | William Karlsson |
| Oct 28, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | William Karlsson |
| Oct 28, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | William Karlsson |
| Oct 28, 2022 | 1 | 00:08 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Oct 28, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | William Karlsson |