Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +10.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Ryan on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Ryan wins 54.3% vs left-shot opponents — Trenin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 54.6% vs Trenin 46.6% (+10.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Ryan 72.5%
Defensive zone
Ryan 92.4%
Neutral zone
Ryan 85.5%
Result
Derek Ryan favored at 88.3%
88.3%
11.7%
Ryan
Trenin
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Ryan
Trenin
Last 5: Ryan 4-1 Trenin
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
2
0
Ryan
Trenin
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ryan
2
1
Ryan
Trenin
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Trenin
Edge
Even Strength
60.8% (263)
46.5% (144)
+14.3%
Power Play
100.0% (1)
50.0% (2)
+50.0%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (145)
41.9% (74)
+4.3%
On power play, Ryan has a +50.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Trenin shoots left. Ryan is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (341).
Ryan shoots right. Trenin is 44.6% vs right-shot opponents (65).
Home / Away
Ryan
Trenin
Home
56.7% (201)
45.7% (129)
Away
54.8% (208)
44.0% (91)
By Period
Ryan
Trenin
P1
56.7%
47.5%
P2
56.8%
52.6%
P3
53.7%
32.3%
Final 5 min
56.1%
41.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
55.7%
Trenin
42.0%▲
40.5%
45.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2024 | 3 | 18:52 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Apr 5, 2024 | 3 | 13:13 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Apr 5, 2024 | 2 | 06:26 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Apr 5, 2024 | 1 | 01:52 | Neutral | Yakov Trenin |
| Oct 17, 2023 | 3 | 01:15 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |