Scouting Report
Alex Turcotte holds a +8.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Turcotte on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Turcotte wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Turcotte 53.2% vs Gourde 45.9% (+8.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Turcotte 87.0%
Defensive zone
Gourde 50.7%
Neutral zone
Turcotte 63.0%
Result
Alex Turcotte favored at 73.3%
73.3%
26.7%
Turcotte
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Turcotte
Gourde
Last 7: Turcotte 5-2 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Turcotte
3
0
Turcotte
Gourde
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Turcotte
Gourde
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Turcotte
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
53.5% (460)
47.2% (636)
+6.3%
Power Play
70.0% (10)
45.0% (20)
+25.0%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
32.2% (87)
+67.8%
On penalty kill, Turcotte has a +67.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Turcotte is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (302).
Turcotte shoots left. Gourde is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (487).
Home / Away
Turcotte
Gourde
Home
53.2% (263)
44.1% (322)
Away
54.8% (208)
46.3% (421)
By Period
Turcotte
Gourde
P1
57.0%
42.1%
P2
59.6%
50.2%
P3
44.1%
43.9%
Final 5 min
52.6%
49.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Turcotte
38.0%▼
52.5%
53.9%
Gourde
56.0%▲
47.0%
45.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1, 2026 | 3 | 19:15 | Neutral | Alex Turcotte |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 3 | 16:41 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 2 | 18:07 | Neutral | Alex Turcotte |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 2 | 05:53 | Offensive | Alex Turcotte |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 1 | 15:39 | Offensive | Alex Turcotte |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 1 | 08:12 | Offensive | Alex Turcotte |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 1 | 03:34 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |