Scouting Report
Jansen Harkins holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Harkins 50.9% vs Ostapchuk 50.2% (+1.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Harkins 64.4%
Defensive zone
Ostapchuk 64.3%
Neutral zone
Ostapchuk 52.5%
Result
Zack Ostapchuk favored at 53.9%
46.1%
53.9%
Harkins
Ostapchuk
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Harkins
Ostapchuk
Last 5: Harkins 2-3 Ostapchuk
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Harkins
1
0
Harkins
Ostapchuk
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ostapchuk
0
2
Harkins
Ostapchuk
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Harkins
Ostapchuk
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Harkins
Ostapchuk
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (173)
51.7% (300)
-2.0%
Power Play
77.8% (9)
33.3% (3)
+44.5%
Penalty Kill
66.7% (3)
43.6% (55)
+23.1%
On power play, Harkins has a +44.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ostapchuk shoots left. Harkins is 48.2% vs left-shot opponents (114).
Harkins shoots left. Ostapchuk is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (250).
Home / Away
Harkins
Ostapchuk
Home
55.3% (85)
49.1% (161)
Away
48.0% (100)
51.3% (197)
By Period
Harkins
Ostapchuk
P1
71.4%
50.0%
P2
41.8%
45.7%
P3
43.5%
55.0%
Final 5 min
51.9%
51.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Harkins
48.0%▼
50.5%
51.4%
Ostapchuk
44.0%▼
48.5%
50.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 05:12 | Defensive | Zack Ostapchuk |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 01:51 | Defensive | Zack Ostapchuk |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 2 | 06:30 | Neutral | Zack Ostapchuk |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 2 | 02:15 | Offensive | Jansen Harkins |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 1 | 02:05 | Neutral | Jansen Harkins |