Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.2% vs 50.3%). Look for Kuraly on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Kuraly wins 53.5% vs left-shot opponents — Ostapchuk shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kuraly 50.1% vs Ostapchuk 50.2% (-0.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kuraly 53.7%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 78.7%
Neutral zone
Kuraly 66.0%
Result
Sean Kuraly favored at 72.3%
72.3%
27.7%
Kuraly
Ostapchuk
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Kuraly
Ostapchuk
Last 6: Kuraly 5-1 Ostapchuk
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
3
0
Kuraly
Ostapchuk
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kuraly
2
1
Kuraly
Ostapchuk
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kuraly
Ostapchuk
Edge
Even Strength
51.8% (444)
51.7% (300)
+0.1%
Penalty Kill
45.3% (150)
43.6% (55)
+1.7%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ostapchuk shoots left. Kuraly is 53.5% vs left-shot opponents (368).
Kuraly shoots left. Ostapchuk is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (250).
Home / Away
Kuraly
Ostapchuk
Home
54.6% (304)
49.1% (161)
Away
45.5% (290)
51.3% (197)
By Period
Kuraly
Ostapchuk
P1
55.2%
50.0%
P2
45.7%
45.7%
P3
49.5%
55.0%
Final 5 min
50.0%
51.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kuraly
64.0%▲
57.0%
50.2%
Ostapchuk
44.0%▼
48.5%
50.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2026 | 1 | 19:36 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 1 | 16:26 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 1 | 05:57 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 2 | 13:50 | Neutral | Zack Ostapchuk |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 2 | 02:24 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 1 | 01:48 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |